Decision Community
See what was tested, how far to trust it, and what happened in the real world.
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Understand the product—and its limits—in three minutes
Seven directions recovered from public experiments, three recorded failure boundaries, and two MCP recipes you can reproduce. The misses are shown beside the wins.
Social proof beat appeals to duty
A neighbor-visibility message moved turnout from 29.7% to 37.8%.
Gerber, Green & Larimer randomized trial, about 344k voters
This recovers a public experiment direction, not your campaign lift.
See evidence and methodFree mattered more than a one-cent cut
Moving to free flipped the majority from premium to the free option.
Shampanier, Mazar & Ariely real-transaction experiment
It shows the psychology of free; unit economics still need testing.
See evidence and methodOne default beat more persuasion
Automatic enrollment moved participation from 37% to 86%.
Madrian & Shea 401(k) participation study
Use beneficial defaults with clear, easy opt-out—not dark patterns.
See evidence and methodSix choices converted 10× better than 24
The jam study saw 3% purchase with 24 options versus 30% with six.
Iyengar & Lepper choice-overload experiment
The right assortment can differ between discovery and checkout.
See evidence and methodAsking when turned intent into action
Writing a date and time raised flu-shot completion to 37.3%.
Milkman et al. implementation-intention field experiment
Retest the idea with your actual booking or calendar flow.
See evidence and methodA reason helped even a small ask
Copier-line compliance moved from 60% to 93–94% with a reason.
Langer, Blank & Chanowitz persuasion experiment
Large asks need a substantive reason, not a formulaic one.
See evidence and methodA match helped; a bigger match tied
Donation matching helped, but 1:1, 2:1, and 3:1 were near-ties.
Karlan & List field experiment with about 50k prior donors
Near-ties should be withheld, not turned into a fake winner.
See evidence and methodPremium-product customers churned more
In telco data, fiber customers churned more, reversing the intuitive prior.
Documented reversal in the public Telco churn dataset
Synthetic panels must not finalize churn or market-entry calls.
See evidence and methodNew visitors converted better than returning visitors
One ecommerce dataset ran opposite to the common intuition.
Documented reversal in the Online Shoppers dataset
Close segment-priority decisions with observed traffic or a pilot.
See evidence and methodThe cheapest option was not the winner
In intercity travel, speed and convenience beat the cheapest fare.
ModeCanada observed-choice data
Price-only models fail when non-price value dominates.
See evidence and methodWhich copy should I A/B first?
Add an audience, two variants, and a metric for a directional memo and test design.
worldclone_decide · copy_ab
Copy output is a hypothesis, never a confirmed winner before a real A/B.
See evidence and methodWhich first customer segment should I narrow to?
Compare two segments for the same product and choose the first pilot.
worldclone_forecast_segments · segment_priority
Priority is directional and needs an observed channel pilot.
See evidence and methodRecent published signals
No community posts yet.
Start with the evidence and MCP recipes above, or share the first decision memo.